Declining pupil numbers: What schools and trusts can do
Falling pupil numbers in England are increasing competition for families between schools. Explore practical steps to attract more families, strengthen parent relationships and protect pupil numbers.
What influences school choice?
How do schools attract more pupils?
Attracting pupils means helping families discover your school and feel confident choosing it. According to the Parent Voice Project, reputation is the most important factor in school choice after location, ahead of Ofsted ratings and exam results.
Your website, social media and parents’ recommendations shape that confidence, supported by positive everyday experiences and helpful responses to enquiries.
Trusts can influence parent choice across their schools through central marketing expertise, shared systems and targeted support.
School choice: what do parents want?
What does ‘reputation’ mean to parents?
A school’s reputation goes beyond Ofsted findings and academic results. It also reflects families’ everyday experiences, and communication plays an important part.
For parents, good communication means:
- Being kept informed about their child’s education, homework and school life. Knowing what they need to do and by when.
- Finding information, policy updates and guidance easily.
- Being able to contact staff and get helpful answers.
The national picture and what is changing
Are pupil numbers declining?
Yes. The Department for Education projects around 726,000 fewer pupils in England’s state-funded schools by 2031 compared with 2026 — a fall of 9.3 per cent.
Primary schools are already experiencing smaller intakes, and secondary pupil numbers have also started to decline as smaller cohorts move through the system.
However, the national picture does not determine every school’s future. Local demand varies, so schools and trusts need to understand whether falling intake reflects fewer children in their area, fewer families choosing their schools, or both. This helps identify where recruitment activity could make a difference.
The drivers behind the trend
Why are pupil numbers declining?
Falling birth rates are the main long-term driver of the decline in pupils. Smaller generations of children mean fewer pupils entering schools. Changes in migration also affect the size of the school-age population.
Locally, demand is influenced by where families live. Housing development, affordability and families moving into or out of an area can change how many children need school places.
This means even schools providing a strong education can experience falling intake. Reviewing local pupil forecasts alongside application trends can help schools and trusts understand the pressures they face and plan their response.
What this means for schools and trusts
What is the impact of declining pupil numbers on schools?
Fewer pupils can mean less funding, while many costs, such as buildings, utilities and staffing, cannot fall at the same rate. Even a modest drop in intake can put pressure on a school’s budget.
This can lead to:
- Difficult decisions about staffing, class organisation and provision.
- Less flexibility to invest in resources and improvements.
- Greater pressure on leadership teams to balance budgets while maintaining quality.
For trusts, declining intake across several schools can stretch shared resources and increase the support individual schools need.
Acting early gives schools and trusts more time to plan, grow recruitment and address concerns that may be influencing parent choice.
Why outcomes vary between schools
Is declining pupil intake inevitable?
No. A fall in the local child population does not mean every school will lose pupils. Individual schools may maintain or grow their intake by attracting a greater share of families considering schools in the area.
Schools cannot control demographics, but they can strengthen:
- Visibility: Helping prospective families discover what the school offers.
- Parent confidence: Answering questions and making visits and enquiries welcoming and straightforward.
- Reputation: Building positive experiences that encourage current parents to recommend the school.
The story in numbers:
44% of parents choose a school based on reputation
Parent Voice Project
33% of Gen Z parents use forums for school decisions
Good Schools Project
13% of parents prioritise league tables
Parent Voice Project
Reputation matters more than Ofsted ratings and performance data
Parent Voice Project
How parent experience influences enrolment
What really drives pupil recruitment?
Pupil recruitment depends on building confidence: from a family’s first impression to their decision to apply.
Positive experiences among current parents can generate recommendations that bring your school into consideration. Your website, social media, visits and responses to enquiries then help prospective families decide whether your school is right for their child.
Each stage matters:
- Discovery: Can families find your school and understand its strengths?
- Consideration: Can they get answers, arrange a visit and feel welcomed?
- Application: Do they understand how to apply and the relevant deadlines?
- Recommendation: Do current parents have positive experiences to share?
What schools can influence and improve
What can schools do to improve pupil numbers?
Start by reviewing how families discover your school, explore their options and experience everyday communication. Focus on five practical areas:
- Make your strengths visible. Keep your website and social media current, showing school life and answering questions prospective parents are likely to ask.
- Make the next step easy. Make sure families can find admissions information, book a visit or make an enquiry without searching across several pages of your website.
- Follow up enquiries. Give a member of staff responsibility for responding, answering outstanding questions and keeping interested families informed.
- Improve everyday communication. Help current parents find the updates, guidance and deadlines they need, and know who to contact.
- Listen and review. Ask families about their experiences, act on recurring concerns and track enquiries, visits and applications to identify where further attention is needed.
Taking a trust-wide approach
How can trusts support pupil recruitment across their schools?
Could your central marketing team do more to protect pupil numbers? Using its expertise to support recruitment across schools can help safeguard future income, particularly where school teams lack time or specialist skills.
Trusts can:
- Coordinate marketing. Plan campaigns, promote open events and improve website and social content around each school’s strengths.
- Use shared systems. Manage enquiries, coordinate follow-up and communicate with families, reducing duplication and missed opportunities.
- Review performance across schools. Use intake trends, recruitment activity and parent feedback to identify priorities and share successful approaches.
- Target central support. Focus expertise and resources where intake is under pressure, while retaining each school’s identity and local relationships.
The big picture
What is the key takeaway for schools and trusts?
Schools and trusts cannot control demographic change, but they can influence how families discover, choose and recommend their schools.
Protecting pupil numbers means connecting recruitment with the everyday parent experience, from the first website visit or enquiry to the communication families receive once their child joins.
Start by identifying where that experience needs strengthening. For trusts, consider what can be coordinated centrally and where individual schools need support.
Explore how ReachMoreParents helps schools and trusts attract families, strengthen parent relationships and protect pupil numbers:
