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Declining pupil numbers: What schools and trusts can do

Falling pupil numbers in England are increasing competition for families between schools. Explore practical steps to attract more families, strengthen parent relationships and protect pupil numbers.

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What influences school choice?

How do schools attract more pupils?

Attracting pupils means helping families discover your school and feel confident choosing it. According to the Parent Voice Project, reputation is the most important factor in school choice after location, ahead of Ofsted ratings and exam results.

Your website, social media and parents’ recommendations shape that confidence, supported by positive everyday experiences and helpful responses to enquiries.

Trusts can influence parent choice across their schools through central marketing expertise, shared systems and targeted support.

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School choice: what do parents want?

What does ‘reputation’ mean to parents?

A school’s reputation goes beyond Ofsted findings and academic results. It also reflects families’ everyday experiences, and communication plays an important part.

For parents, good communication means:

  • Being kept informed about their child’s education, homework and school life.
  • Knowing what they need to do and by when.
  • Finding information, policy updates and guidance easily.
  • Being able to contact staff and get helpful answers.
When schools make these interactions straightforward, parents feel better informed, supported and involved. That helps build the confidence and satisfaction behind positive recommendations to other families. 
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The national picture and what is changing

Are pupil numbers declining?

Yes. The Department for Education projects around 726,000 fewer pupils in England’s state-funded schools by 2031 compared with 2026 — a fall of 9.3 per cent.

Primary schools are already experiencing smaller intakes, and secondary pupil numbers have also started to decline as smaller cohorts move through the system. 

However, the national picture does not determine every school’s future. Local demand varies, so schools and trusts need to understand whether falling intake reflects fewer children in their area, fewer families choosing their schools, or both. This helps identify where recruitment activity could make a difference. 

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The drivers behind the trend

Why are pupil numbers declining?

Falling birth rates are the main long-term driver of the decline in pupils. Smaller generations of children mean fewer pupils entering schools. Changes in migration also affect the size of the school-age population. 

Locally, demand is influenced by where families live. Housing development, affordability and families moving into or out of an area can change how many children need school places. 

This means even schools providing a strong education can experience falling intake. Reviewing local pupil forecasts alongside application trends can help schools and trusts understand the pressures they face and plan their response. 

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What this means for schools and trusts

What is the impact of declining pupil numbers on schools?

Fewer pupils can mean less funding, while many costs, such as buildings, utilities and staffing, cannot fall at the same rate. Even a modest drop in intake can put pressure on a school’s budget. 

This can lead to:

  • Difficult decisions about staffing, class organisation and provision. 
  • Less flexibility to invest in resources and improvements. 
  • Greater pressure on leadership teams to balance budgets while maintaining quality. 

For trusts, declining intake across several schools can stretch shared resources and increase the support individual schools need. 

Acting early gives schools and trusts more time to plan, grow recruitment and address concerns that may be influencing parent choice. 

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Why outcomes vary between schools

Is declining pupil intake inevitable?

No. A fall in the local child population does not mean every school will lose pupils. Individual schools may maintain or grow their intake by attracting a greater share of families considering schools in the area.

Schools cannot control demographics, but they can strengthen:

  • Visibility: Helping prospective families discover what the school offers.
  • Parent confidence: Answering questions and making visits and enquiries welcoming and straightforward.
  • Reputation: Building positive experiences that encourage current parents to recommend the school.
These actions cannot guarantee growth, particularly where local demand is falling sharply. But they give schools and trusts a stronger basis for protecting pupil numbers than assuming decline is unavoidable.

The story in numbers:

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44% of parents choose a school based on reputation

Parent Voice Project

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33% of Gen Z parents use forums for school decisions

Good Schools Project

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13% of parents prioritise league tables

Parent Voice Project

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Reputation matters more than Ofsted ratings and performance data

Parent Voice Project

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How parent experience influences enrolment

What really drives pupil recruitment?

Pupil recruitment depends on building confidence: from a family’s first impression to their decision to apply.

Positive experiences among current parents can generate recommendations that bring your school into consideration. Your website, social media, visits and responses to enquiries then help prospective families decide whether your school is right for their child.

Each stage matters:

  • Discovery: Can families find your school and understand its strengths?
  • Consideration: Can they get answers, arrange a visit and feel welcomed?
  • Application: Do they understand how to apply and the relevant deadlines?
  • Recommendation: Do current parents have positive experiences to share?
A strong approach connects these stages, combining ongoing parent relationships with clear information and helpful follow-up for prospective families.
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What schools can influence and improve

What can schools do to improve pupil numbers?

Start by reviewing how families discover your school, explore their options and experience everyday communication. Focus on five practical areas:

  • Make your strengths visible. Keep your website and social media current, showing school life and answering questions prospective parents are likely to ask. 
  • Make the next step easy. Make sure families can find admissions information, book a visit or make an enquiry without searching across several pages of your website. 
  • Follow up enquiries. Give a member of staff responsibility for responding, answering outstanding questions and keeping interested families informed. 
  • Improve everyday communication. Help current parents find the updates, guidance and deadlines they need, and know who to contact.
  • Listen and review. Ask families about their experiences, act on recurring concerns and track enquiries, visits and applications to identify where further attention is needed. 
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Taking a trust-wide approach

How can trusts support pupil recruitment across their schools?

Could your central marketing team do more to protect pupil numbers? Using its expertise to support recruitment across schools can help safeguard future income, particularly where school teams lack time or specialist skills. 

Trusts can:

  • Coordinate marketing. Plan campaigns, promote open events and improve website and social content around each school’s strengths.
  • Use shared systems. Manage enquiries, coordinate follow-up and communicate with families, reducing duplication and missed opportunities.
  • Review performance across schools. Use intake trends, recruitment activity and parent feedback to identify priorities and share successful approaches.
  • Target central support. Focus expertise and resources where intake is under pressure, while retaining each school’s identity and local relationships.
Start by reviewing who owns recruitment in each school and where central expertise or shared tools could help.

 

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The big picture

What is the key takeaway for schools and trusts?

Schools and trusts cannot control demographic change, but they can influence how families discover, choose and recommend their schools. 

Protecting pupil numbers means connecting recruitment with the everyday parent experience, from the first website visit or enquiry to the communication families receive once their child joins. 

Start by identifying where that experience needs strengthening. For trusts, consider what can be coordinated centrally and where individual schools need support. 

Explore how ReachMoreParents helps schools and trusts attract families, strengthen parent relationships and protect pupil numbers:

Frequently asked questions from schools and trusts

How can schools tell whether falling intake reflects demographics or parent choice?

 Compare local pupil forecasts with your school’s applications, first preferences and intake over several years. Falling local demand may explain part of the change, while feedback from prospective families can help identify other factors influencing their decisions.  

Can a school with strong academic results still experience falling intake?

Yes. Smaller local cohorts can reduce demand even where educational standards remain strong. Results also do not tell families everything they want to know about a school, so it is important to communicate its wider strengths and help parents picture their child there.

Where should schools start with improving pupil recruitment?

Review the experience of a prospective parent. Can they understand what your school offers, find admissions information and arrange a visit easily? Check who responds to enquiries and how you stay in touch with interested families. 

How does communication with current parents support recruitment?

Clear, timely communication helps parents feel informed and supported. These everyday experiences contribute to satisfaction and the recommendations families share with others. Communication works alongside the quality of education, care and support children receive.

What should trusts coordinate centrally?

Trusts can provide shared website standards, campaign resources, enquiry processes and ways to review progress. School teams can contribute local stories, welcome prospective families and maintain personal relationships. Agreeing responsibilities helps reduce duplication and gaps. 

How can schools and trusts measure whether their approach is working?

Track enquiries, visits, applications and eventual intake over time. Alongside these, review parent reach, interaction and feedback. Together, these measures help identify where families lose interest, where communication needs attention and which approaches may be worth repeating.

Take a strategic approach to pupil recruitment